London Playbook PM: All eyes on Kyiv

Good afternoon. This is Andrew McDonald.
— Foreign Secretary David Lammy is in Kyiv for a press conference with his U.S. and Ukrainian counterparts, as pressure over use of long-range missiles in Russia grows. 
— Don’t expect the big announcement today — despite intense Ukrainian lobbying.
— Keir Starmer came under fire at PMQs for dodging questions on a winter fuel cut impact assessment.
— The government introduced its renters’ rights bill.
— Ballots closed for elections to chair the Commons’ powerful scrutiny committees. Results should come this evening.
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THREE MEN IN KYIV: Foreign Secretary David Lammy, his U.S. counterpart Antony Blinken and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha‎ are set to face the media — with a joint press conference in Kyiv beginning a little while after this email hits your inbox. 
One story in town: After their bilateral and presser in London yesterday, Blinken and Lammy have been in the Ukrainian capital since the morning — and have been hearing from officials and politicians about the key issue on Ukrainian minds: getting permission to strike Russia with long-range weapons. Playbook PM is told not to expect the big announcement today — but, make no mistake, this a huge issue for Ukraine that’s not going away.
Tony and Dave have just … wrapped a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy before hot-footing to the press conference. Earlier in the day, Zelenskyy was calling for “strong decisions” from the pair.
The key ask: As POLITICO’s Ukraine correspondent Veronika Melkozerova writes, there is hope in Kyiv that the American position may be starting to budge, amid rising pressure from Democrat and Republican lawmakers calling for a loosening of the rules banning Ukraine from using its (donated) long-range missiles to strike targets in Russia. 
And today’s presser comes … as part of a drumbeat of noises which indicate that the position from the West could be about to change. Speaking before the presser, Lammy said the West is “listening carefully” to Ukraine’s calls. “We’re here to listen, to understand the plan, to understand the strategy and understand the needs across a whole range of fronts,” Lammy said.
On the ground: Central Kyiv looked like a stronghold as the pair of top diplomats arrived, Veronika texts in to say, with police patrolling every corner and motorcades out and about. Journalists were asked to come to the presser an hour earlier and not everyone got a chair. As reporters were waiting, an air raid alert started in Kyiv. It left everyone puzzled as the Kremlin rarely launches attacks when major Western guests are in town.
Another good question for the trio: What do the three men think of Donald Trump dodging the question on whether he wants Ukraine to win the war? It’s an especially awkward one for David Lammy, who certainly had some things to say about Trump while in opposition (but is now trying to sound much nicer about the Republican candidate.)
THE MYSTERY OF THE IMPACT ASSESSMENT: Keir Starmer refused to say if he would publish an impact assessment on the winter fuel cuts, as the issue dominated the most interesting bits of the last PMQs before party conference season. Interim LOTO Rishi Sunak asked Starmer twice if he is planning to publish the doc — which should lay out how many people officials expect to suffer, or even die, due to the decision.
Look back over there: Starmer didn’t address the substance of the question — this was PMQs, after all! — and instead urged Sunak to apologize for the the £22 billion fiscal black hole that Labour argues was left by the last administration. Which is a line he’ll probably return to in the handful of head-to-head clashes he has left with Sunak.
Schrödinger’s impact assessment: At a post-PMQs briefing with journalists, the PM’s deputy official spokesperson refused to answer any questions on when the impact assessment would be published or even confirm that it exists. We do, of course, know an assessment of sorts exists — because Energy Minister Miatta Fahnbulleh has confirmed analysis has been carried out that will be published in “due course.”
But to be fair: A government official argues that Fahnbulleh was just referring to normal analysis on fuel poverty data, rather than a formal impact assessment on the specific winter fuel cut. Which means we’re still none-the-wiser on whether an impact assessment of this massive policy change actually exists.
PMQs also featured … a very corny joke from Sunak about Starmer’s hatred of portraits (the PM had a giggle in response) and Reform’s Nigel Farage — wearing a UKIP-purple tie — turning the government’s early release scheme into a jibe on “two-tier” policing. POLITICO’s Noah Keate has the usual scorecard and reckons Sunak won it.
Out in the cold: Peers will get a chance to make their feelings known on the winter fuel allowance this evening, as non-affiliated peer and former Pensions Minister Ros Altmann brings in her own motion to block the changes around the time Playbook PM hits inboxes. It seems unlikely to pass given MPs have now rubber-stamped the government’s plan, but my colleague Esther Webber hears there have been some interesting whipping tactics at work — including rebellious peers being warned that it will look like they are trying to save themselves from losing the money. Watch for how many Labour peers ignore the whips and rebel.
One-man-rebellion latest: No word yet on the fate of the lonely winter soldier Jon Trickett. Playbook PM hears disciplinary action against the rebel Labour MP is forthcoming in some form — though that could mean anything from withdrawing the whip to a polite telling off.
More where that came from: In an interview with the BBC — in response to this morning’s flatlining GDP figures — Chancellor Rachel Reeves hinted at further “difficult decisions” to come in the October budget.
WHAT MINISTERS WANT TO TALK ABOUT: The government introduced its Renters’ Rights Bill — with its flagship measure of banning no-fault evictions.
It’s largely … similar to Michael Gove’s ill-fated Renters Reform Bill which was kicked into the long grass. But as this morning’s Playbook reported, there are some differences, including moves to ban rental bidding wars and new curbs on some in-tenancy rent increases.
From one side: Tom Darling of the Renters’ Reform Coalition has an op-ed in the Guardian arguing that there is “very little to stop unaffordable rent hikes continuing to force people out of their homes” — which is still the key thing that contributes to renting being a bit of a nightmare.
Thumbs mostly up: YouGov research on the issue shows that 60 percent of Brits back banning no-fault evictions, including almost four in five private renters, and that the public tends to favor greater security for long-term tenants. Only 22 percent of Brits say they have a favorable view of landlords, compared to a majority who have an unfavorable view. More numberwang here.
The public also tend to think … that MPs shouldn’t be landlords — 55 percent have that view.
From the other: The National Residential Landlords Association is warning that landlords might respond by raising rents to “mitigate the risk to incomes.” Which is the type of comment that explains the figures above. The Indy’s Millie Cooke has a write-up.
AND NOW, THEY WAIT: The ballot of all MPs for the coveted select committee chairmanships has closed — and now we, and the hopefuls, have to wait for the result. The count is underway, but the results may not come till tomorrow.
The process: The ballot checkers are waiting until every vote is counted, before passing ’em all on to Speaker Lindsay Hoyle. If the counting is finished before the Commons rises — the latest it will finish for the day is about 7.30 p.m. — then Hoyle will read out the results in a one-er tonight. If the counting isn’t finished by then, Hoyle will read out the results tomorrow.
Had enough: Treasury Minister Tulip Siddiq got bored of being asked to vote for committee chairs.
Also had enough: Veteran MPs are still grumbling about newly-elected MPs running for the committee chair posts — expect those grumbles to only grow if any actually beat their seasoned colleagues to the post. PoliticsHome’s Tom Scotson has the latest of the moans about “sharp-elbowed” newbies here, plus a defense of the new MPs from IfG boss Hannah White.
PORT TALBOT JOS TO GO: 2,500 jobs are set to go at the Port Talbot steelworks — despite Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds agreeing a £500m deal for the South Wales plant today. ITV News has a write-up.
ANOTHER LOOMING CUT: A series of former Tory environment ministers have written to the Telegraph slamming reported cuts to the nature-friendly farming budget.
ROUBLES PROBE: After 35 years of collusion, cover-up and delay, the U.K. government will establish an independent and public fact-finding inquiry into one of Northern Ireland’s most bitterly disputed killings – the 1989 assassination of lawyer Patrick Finucane, POLITICO’s Ireland correspondent Shawn Pogatchnik writes. Northern Ireland Secretary Hilary Benn announced the long-sought move in the House of Commons after separately meeting Finucane’s family yesterday and Irish Foreign Minister Micheál Martin at the weekend.
The decision was welcomed by … Sinn Féin — whose director of elections and North Belfast MP, John Finucane, witnessed his father’s killing as a boy. First Minister Michelle O’Neill tweeted here.
Can of worms: The Finucane case poses a particularly grisly can of worms for the British state, which has long been accused in Irish republican circles of sanctioning the killing at higher levels than already admitted. It’s partly why the previous Conservative government spent five years balking on the Finucane family’s calls for a public inquiry following a 2019 U.K. Supreme Court judgment that Finucane’s murder had never been properly investigated.
Agents and informers: The 1989 slaying — when the 39-year-old lawyer was shot 14 times point-blank in his dining room as he ate lunch with his wife and three children — was officially committed by the loyalist Ulster Defence Association. But key figures behind the killing were also on the British Army and Royal Ulster Constabulary payrolls. A string of criminal cases and behind-closed-doors probes since the 1990s have determined that Brian Nelson, an undercover army agent who became the UDA’s director of intelligence, picked Finucane for assassination and mapped his home for the attack, while the UDA man who supplied one of the murder weapons, William Stobie, was keeping the police’s anti-terrorist Special Branch in the loop on UDA plans.
Who let it happen? The big unanswered question is at what level did British authorities in the army, police and even government give the green light for Finucane to be slain. His widow, Geraldine — who received a face-to-face apology from then-Prime Minister David Cameron in Downing Street in 2011 a year before Cameron’s public apology in the Commons — has spent decades arguing that only a public inquiry with the power to compel witness testimony will have the ability to determine how high the collusion and conspiracy went. She’s finally getting one.
ACROSS THE POND: Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump both attended a 9/11 memorial event in New York just hours after facing off in a presidential debate widely seen to have gone Harris’ way. Politics was briefly put to one side as the pair — alongside incumbent President Joe Biden and Trump’s running mate JD Vance — remembered the almost 3,000 people who died exactly 23 years ago.
On the debate: Despite Harris winning praise from Democrats for rattling Trump, the former president insisted the debate had gone well. After the debate, Trump spun for himself, telling Channel 4 News’ Siobhan Kennedy he “won by a lot.” Nonetheless, voters aren’t likely to get another chance to hear him, as Trump said he’d be “less inclined” for another debate despite Harris calling for one. My Stateside colleagues have the full details.
Failure to prepare: Harris’ success in the debate was thanks to extensive preparation on coached attack lines to use against Trump, whereas the former president’s improvisational approach meant he lacked a strategy and wasn’t able to develop a clear and sustained argument, POLITICO’s Global Editor-in-Chief John Harris says.
MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Five Palestinians have been killed in an Israeli air strike in the north of the occupied West Bank, the Palestinian health ministry said, while the Israeli Defense Forces said an aircraft struck an “armed terror cell” during counterterrorism activity — more from the BBC. Two Israeli soldiers were also killed in a helicopter crash over the Gaza Strip while trying to evacuate an injured solider — via Bloomberg.
IN MEXICO: Hundreds of angry protestors invaded the Mexican senate during a debate over controversial plans to make all judges elected. The Times has more.
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LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News (5 p.m.) leads on the government’s deal with Tata Steel … Channel 4 News (7 p.m.) focuses on the aftermath of the U.S. presidential debate.
Tom Swarbrick at Drive (LBC, until 6 p.m.): Former Assistant Chief of the Defense Staff Jonathan Shaw (5.05 p.m.).
BBC PM (Radio 4, 5 p.m.): Former Welsh First Minister Carwyn Jones.
Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, until 7 p.m.): Financial Secretary to the Treasury Spencer Livermore … former U.K. National Security Adviser Mark Lyall Grant … former Labour adviser Matthew Lavender and the Spectator’s Isabel Hardman (both 6 p.m.).
News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.): Former Senior Adviser to Bill Clinton Sidney Blumenthal (5.30 p.m.) … former Israeli Defense Forces Brigadier General Amir Avivi (5.45 p.m.).
Tonight With Andrew Marr (LBC, 6 p.m.): Former Foreign Secretary David Miliband … former George W. Bush speechwriter David Frum … former Senior Adviser to Kamala Harris Brian Brokaw.
Simon Marks (LBC, 7 p.m.): Deputy Lib Dem Leader Daisy Cooper phone-in (7 p.m. until 8 p.m.).
Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge (Sky News, 7 p.m.): Labour peer David Blunkett … former Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi … former Commons Leader Andrea Leadsom.
Farage (GB News, 7 p.m.): Former Labour MP Lloyd Russell-Moyle.
Cross Question with Simon Marks (LBC, 8 p.m.): Suspended Labour MP John McDonnell … Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary Alex Burghart … the Spectator’s James Heale … journo Eleanor Mills.
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s State of the Nation (GB News, 8 p.m.): Former Tory MP John Redwood.
Newsnight (BBC 2, 10.30 p.m.): Former Mayor of Bristol Marvin Rees.
TWEETING TOMORROW’S PAPERS TONIGHT: Neil Henderson.
REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): Talk’s Peter Cardwell and PoliticsHome’s Nadine Bachelor-Hunt … Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): The Mirror’s Kevin Maguire and the Spectator’s Kate Andrews.
GOOD FOR YOUR HEALTH: The Health Foundation’s annual reception is at the Southbank Centre from 6 p.m. Invites needed.
TINS WITH THE TECHIES: The Department for Business and Trade has its summer reception. Invites needed.
LABOUR LAUNCH: The anti-NIMBY Labour Infrastructure Forum hosts its launch event from 6.30 p.m. Invites needed.
GOVE AND SIMONS: The IPPR has a panel with former cabinet minister Michael Gove and Labour MP Josh Simons on populism, kicking off at 5 p.m.
NHS REPORT: Surgeon and former Health Minister Ara Darzi’s big report into the NHS will be published.
COMMONS: Defra, solicitor general questions … Business statement … and the usual pre-recess general debate.
LORDS: Former PM Theresa May will be introduced to the Lords.
BAH GAWD, THAT’S NICK CLEGG’S MUSIC: Meta bigwig Nick Clegg has a rare on camera grilling at Chatham House on whether democracy can survive the pace of technology.
PACKED LUNCH OR PALACE LUNCH: Subject to change, here are the lunch menus on the estate tomorrow: Bellamy’s: Jerk chicken with rice and peas; cauliflower and butternut squash balti pie; deep fried battered cod with tartare sauce and lemon … Terrace Cafeteria: Jerk chicken with rice and peas; minced pork burger with fried egg and apple chutney; Mushroom lentil and kale pie with mashed potato topping … River Restaurant: Vegetable gyoza served with stir-fry noodles, Asian slaw and miso broth; Tandoori coley served with biryani rice, dahl, minted cucumber salad and aubergine chutney; Peri peri chicken burger served with chips and Cajun corn on the cob.
NEW GIG: Jonathan Isaby is the new director of the Growth Commission — the grouping of independent economists assembled by Liz Truss after she left No 10. Isaby will remain the former PM’s always-busy press secretary too.
ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: The world changed forever after New York’s World Trade Center was hit by two hijacked planes. Here’s the BBC’s reporting from this day in 2001.
WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Dan Bloom.
MEA CULPA: Playbook this morning said one-third of MPs released in Tuesday’s prisoner release had been convicted of violent crimes. This figure was only applicable in Scotland — not all of the U.K.
THANKS TO: My editor Matt Honeycombe-Foster, reporter Noah Keate and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.
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